USD/JPY: finished the week lower amid a weaker USD

EUR/USD

The pair finished the week higher after Eurozone leaders put forward plans that will permit the financial rescue fund to take advantage of new powers to prevent contagion and help Greece overcome its debt crisis. The move higher came in spite of somewhat mixed macro-economic data releases, as well as less than impressive demand for government debt sales.

In terms of technical levels, support levels are seen at the 21DMA line at 1.4283 and then at the 10DMA line at 1.4178. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 1.4400/40 and then at 1.4496.

GBP/USD

Despite the release of dovish BoE minutes from the most recent monetary policy meeting, the pair finished the week higher following renewed risk appetite as investors speculated that policy makers on both sides of the pond will put their differences aside and provide the much needed clarity on debt problems.

Finally, technical studies indicate that supports are seen at the 21DMA line at 1.6074 and then at 1.6069. On the other hand, resistance levels are noted at 1.6344 and then at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.6747-1.5781 move.

USD/JPY

Despite the renewed sense of optimism over the state of the peripheral Eurozone, the pair finished the week lower amid a weaker USD, which fell around 1.5% as policy makers in the US failed to agree to debt reduction plans. Of note, DPJ's Naoshima said that government efforts to counter JPY strength have been "inadequate".

In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 78.22/00 and then at the historic low at 76.25. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 78.74, 79.03 and then at 79.32, which is also the Tenkan Line.
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As we take the journey through the final part of this article, you can look back at the first part if you need any clarifications on what we have already learned.

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Trading Systems Coding: The Coding Process

By now you should have a design in hand as well as a basic idea of what the code looks like. In this section, we'll take a more in-depth look at how a program is created. After reading this section, you should be able to understand basic program structure and be able to convert your design to code!



An Overview

There are two basic parts to a program:



* Variables - These are items that hold data. This can be data that you collect from the user, or any other data.

* Statements - These form the core of the program. Statements manipulate the data to get results that can be converted to actions.



In addition to these core components, there are also several optional components:



* Functions - These are simply collections of related statements that can be used to perform a specific task. For example, a function telling you when to buy might include a statement to check whether you have enough money, a statement to determine whether it meets your criteria and a statement to place the order. A function combines these, allowing you to simply call on the function instead of rewriting these statements each time you want to buy.

* Arrays - These are simply data structures that hold similar data and enable you to access and manipulate the data more efficiently.



A Look at Variables

Variables are simply objects that you define to hold data. You may recall from the previous section that we used three variables: MATrendPeriod, MaCurrent and MaPrior. MATrendPeriod held a number that defined how many days we would use in our moving average calculation; MaCurrent held a number representing the current moving average; and MaPrior held a number representing the prior moving average.



Creating a Variable

You can use almost any name you want when naming a variable. The only exception is a list of ''restricted words'' that you are not allowed to use because the names are already used by other parts of the program. You can find your trading program's list of restricted words in the program's documentation. In general, names should describe the data being held. For example, notice that we used MaCurrent to define the current moving average.



After you have created a name, you must declare and define the variable. Declaring a variable tells the computer what type of data it is, and tells it to make space for that data. Defining the variable is where actual data is assigned, or added, to the variable. Let's take a look at these processes:



1. Declaring a Variable

In MetaTrader, variables are declared automatically when you assign information to them. In other programs, you may have to declare a variable, which is typically done using the following format:



;



The two types of data are numbers and text, but these are broken down into more groups like integers (whole numbers), double (large numbers), float (decimal numbers), string (text), and others depending on the program you are using. For example, the following code will declare numberOfDays as an integer:



Int numberOfDays;



2. Defining a Variable

After your variable has been declared, the computer has created space for it. Now, all you have to do is add actual data to that space. This can be done in two ways: you can either define a set amount, or you can perform a calculation to obtain a value, which you then assign to the variable.



In MetaTrader, you can add set data using the following format:



Defines: ();



In other programs, set data is often assigned simply using the equals sign:



= ;



If you want to perform a calculation to obtain data to assign to the variable, then you simply assign the variable to the calculation:



= ;



For example, to set a 20-day moving average in MetaTrader, we use the following code:



= iMA(20,MODE_SMA,0);



Note that the iMA(20,MODE_SMA,0) portion of the code is the calculation. The format for this calculation was developed by MetaTrader and will differ if you are using another trading program. To find these calculations, you must consult your trading program's documentation, which usually contains a list of all available calculations.



3. Using Variables

Once declared and defined, variables can be used anywhere else within the program to represent the data they contain. To do this, simple type the name of the variable in place of the data. For example, if MATrendPeriod contains the number of days we want a moving average calculated for, we can use it to replace the 20 in our example above:



= iMA(MATrendPeriod, MODE_SMA, 0);



There are two advantages to using variables as opposed to just the data: (1) you can change the data in one place, and (2) the result of an entire calculation can be contained within one variable.



A Look at Statements

Statements are the core of any program - they contain all of the commands that manipulate data to make decisions. Here we will take a look at several of the most common types of statements and how they can be used.



1. Comments

If you have designed a complex trading system, it may take a lot of code to implement your rules; therefore, it would be prudent to insert comments in your code to help yourself understand it in the future, and to help out anyone with whom you may share your code. Almost all trading applications share a similar method for creating comments:



Single Line Comments:



//



Multi-Line Comments:



/*



*/



2. The 'If' Statement

This is the statement you will use most when coding a trading system. This statement lets you create scenarios as we did in the design portion of this tutorial. You may have also noticed that this was the only statement we used in the example program we created. This type of statement is implemented using the following format:



Standard If/Then:



If Then ;



Standard If/Else:



If Then Else ;



So, for example:



If accountBalance <>



The condition can be:



· Greater Than (>)

· Less Than (<) · Equal To (=). Note that one '=' assigns, two '==' returns either true or false. 3. The While Loop This loop is commonly used to tell the computer to continue doing something while a certain condition is true or false. So, for example, maybe you want to have the trading system keep a position open while your account is above a certain balance, but close it if it ever falls below that balance. These statements are created using the following format: While ;



4. The Exit and/or End Statement

An 'Exit' or 'End' statement is used to indicate to the computer that your program will be ending at that particular point. Typically, this is done using:



Exit;

Or,

End;



These are usually placed in the 'If' statements if that statement is executed so that the computer doesn't continue to look at the rest of the 'If' statements.



Trading System Implementation

Note that different trading applications will differ slightly in how they implement statements. For example, in some trading applications, the 'If' statement is constructed by using:



If (, , );



Meanwhile, other applications may split up this code into two parts:



If () { } else { };



We can see that the same idea is present, but the implementation differs. It is important to consult your trading application's documentation, or application programming interface (API), to determine what differences exist.











Putting It All Together

Now you should have an idea of the different components that can be used when coding your trading system. All that remains to be done is to put everything together. To do this, simply take your design document and determine the following:



* What variables will I have to define?

o Calculations à Moving averages, RSI, MACD, etc.

o Set Amounts à Time periods, deposit amounts, risk percentages, etc.

* What statements will I have to make?

o Convert your rules to the proper statements using the above guides.



Once you know this, all you need to do is piece together all of the parts. The standard structure for a program is:











Conclusion

Now you should have a basic idea of how to put your trading system into code. Be sure to consult your trading application's documentation often, as it may contain pre-built calculations that you can use, code examples and much more that can help you to better understand the specifics. In the next part of this tutorial, we'll take a look at testing your new program both technically (to find errors in the code) and theoretically (to find errors in your logic).

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Trading Systems Coding: System Design

The first step when coding any application is the design phase. Whether coding a software application or a trading system, careful design and planning will help you finish in a shorter amount of time with fewer errors. We will be using a simple three-step process to design our trading system.

Step 1: Create Your Trading System Rules
The first step when designing a trading system is simply coming up with the rules by which your system will operate. There should be four core rules to every trading system:

1. Buy - Identify when you want to buy a position.
2. Sell - Identify when you want to sell a position.
3. Stop - Identify when you want to cut your losses.
4. Target - Identify when you want to book a gain.

So, for example:

1. Buy - When the 30-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 60-day MA
2. Sell - When the 30-day MA crosses below the 60-day MA
3. Stop - Maximum loss of 10 units
4. Target - Target of 10 units

This example system will buy and sell based on the 30- and 60-day moving averages and will automatically book gains after a 10-unit profit or sell at a loss after a 10-unit move in the opposite direction.

Step 2: Identify the Components of Each Rule
Now that we have our rules down, we need to identify the components involved in each rule. Each component should contain two elements:

1. The indicator or study used
2. The settings for the indicator or study

These components should be constructed by typing the shorthand name for the study, followed by the settings in parentheses. These settings in parentheses are referred to as "parameters" of the indicator or study. Occasionally, a study may have multiple parameters, in which case you simply separate them with commas.

Let's take a look at a few examples:

1. MA(25) - 25-day moving average
2. RSI(25) - 25-day relative strength index
3. MACD(Close(0),5,5) - Moving average convergence divergence set based on today's close, with a five-day fast length and a five-day slow length

If you are unsure of how many parameters a certain component requires, you can simply consult your trading program's documentation, which lists these components along with the values that need to be filled in. For example, we can see that Tradecision tells us that we need three parameters with MACD:



So, for the example mentioned in step one, we would use:

1. MA(30) - Meaning 30-day moving average
2. MA(60) - Meaning 60-day moving average

Step 3: Adding Action
Now we will add actions to our rules. Each action adheres to the following basic format:

IF Condition [WHILE Condition] THEN Action




Typically, the condition will consist of the components and parameters you created above, while the action will consist of buy or sell. Conditions may also consist of simple English if no component is present. Note that the "while" component is optional.

Here are a few examples to help illustrate this point:

* IF MA(30) Crosses Above MA(60) THEN Buy
* IF MA(30) Crosses Below MA(60) WHILE Volume(20,000) THEN Sell
* IF EMA(25) Is Greater Than MA(5) THEN Sell
* IF RSI(20) Is Equal To 50 THEN Buy

So, for the example we've been using, we'd simply list:

* IF MA(30) Crosses Above MA(60) THEN Buy
* IF MA(30) Crosses Below MA(60) THEN Sell
* IF our trade has 10 units of profit THEN Sell
* IF our trade has 10 units of loss THEN Sell

What's Next?
Next, we'll take a look at converting these rules into a code that your computer can understand!
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Extend stimulus to secure economic recovery, experts advise



A worker packages cooking oil bottles at a factory in Ho Chi Minh City
Further fiscal stimulus is needed as the US$8 billion package this year has worked its way through the economy, showing good results, experts say.

If the economy is not completely out of the woods by the end of the current stimulus package, its continuation should be considered though the amount can be smaller, economist Vu Dinh Anh said Friday in a report on Vietnam Television’s website

Cao Sy Kiem, a member of the National Advisory Council for Monetary Policy, said more stimulus measures would be necessary even after the economy has recovered.

“Local businesses need to descend the ladder step by step and there should not be any abrupt end in stimulus spending,” Kiem said in an interview with Tien Phong newspaper Wednesday.

Although the government’s program to subsidize 4 percent of the interest rate on loans taken by local businesses has shown real effects, it can only meet about one third of the credit demand, he said, noting the program is also set to close in the next four months.

Vietnam’s economy accelerated in the second quarter as the stimulus helped drive credit growth and buoyed construction activity.

The nation’s commercial banks have lent more than VND397.7 trillion ($22.3 billion) to businesses as part of the government’s loan-subsidy program as of August 27, a 0.43 percent increase from a week earlier, according to a central bank report Friday.

“The government’s interest-rate subsidy program has helped the banking system and companies avoid bad debt and bankruptcies,” Tran Du Lich, a member of Vietnam’s National Assembly Committee for Economic Affairs, said at a conference in Ho Chi Minh City on August 19.

Lich said the National Assembly will early next year discuss the size of another lending program for medium and long-term loans to help companies restructure businesses through the end of next year.

The International Monetary Fund has said the global economy is recovering from a severe downturn, but it is too soon for governments to begin winding down stimulus efforts, according to AFP.

“The outlook is improving but we do feel that it is very important to stress that it is no time for complacency,” AFP quoted IMF spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson as saying at a news conference Thursday.

Kiem said interest rates on loans subsidized by the government are around 6 percent now but they would return to around 10 percent without the subsidies, which would cause many difficulties for local businesses.

“What the government should do is to provide more credit,” he said, noting a credit growth target of around 30 percent is viable.

The central bank plans to ease limits on credit growth this year as it aims to help the nation reach its economic expansion target of about 5 percent.

The State Bank of Vietnam aims to cap expansion in lending at 30 percent, and will try to slow loan growth in the coming years, Governor Nguyen Van Giau said in a statement on the central bank’s website Friday.

Credit from banks has grown 25 percent in the eight months through August from the end of last year, Giau said at a meeting in Da Lat on Friday. Vietnam’s economy may grow 5.2 percent this year, he said.

Source: Thanh Nien, Bloomberg

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Airlines trim services as downturn hits travel demand



An airplane replica seen at a ticket office of Vietnam Airlines in Ho Chi Minh City.
Falling demand for travel amid the global economic downturn has forced many airlines flying to Vietnam to cut back on services and delay expansion plans.

From next month, Hong Kong Airlines will reduce the frequency of its Hanoi-Hong Kong service to five flights a week from the current seven. Sales manager Nguyen Tuan Hai said demand has fallen away sharply.

Zlatko Zlatic, general manager of Lufthansa in Vietnam, said the German carrier would continue to fly three times a week this summer from Vietnam to Frankfurt, with a stopover in Bangkok. Demand is still adequate and the schedule would be restructured if passenger numbers decline, he said.

Zlatic said the number of people flying from Europe and the US to Vietnam has dropped 10 percent since a year ago.

The number of foreign travelers to the country fell 18.8 percent year-onyear in the first five months this year to 1.6 million, figures from the General Statistics Office show.

Vo Huy Cuong, head of the Aviation Transport Department at the Civil Aviation Administration of Vietnam, said last month the number of flights registered to fly to and from Vietnam in the March-October period fell 4 percent from last year’s period.

Many carriers, including Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways and Vietnam Airlines, have decided to reduce their flights, Cuong said.

Vietnam Airlines has decided to cut down services on many sectors. The number of flights on the HCMC-Busan route, for instance, has been halved to two a week.

The airline carried 2.3 million passengers in the first quarter, a 5 percent fall year on year, as the global recession hit leisure and business trips.

“Our sales may decline and our costs are rising this year,” Pham Ngoc Minh, its chief executive officer, told Bloomberg last month. “We will try everything possible to make sure we don’t make a loss this year.”

Indochina Airlines, which started operating late last year, now uses only one 282-seat airplane for its four flights between Hanoi and HCMC daily.

Ha Dung, general director of Indochina Airlines, said cutting services and using just one plane are measures to deal with the economic slowdown.

Even the no-frills model has not managed to weather the economic downturn very well.

Budget carrier Jetstar Pacific has had to delay its plan to launch new services to Bangkok and Seam Reap.

VietJet Air, a local carrier licensed in late 2007, has had to delay its first flight until the end of this year because of the downturn.

Worldwide, air passenger traffic fell 3.1 percent in April, slowing from double-digit falls in the two preceding months, AFP reported Wednesday, citing the International Air Transport Association.

Asia Pacific carriers saw the biggest fall in demand, with an 8.6 percent drop in passenger traffic in April.

Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the airline association, said in a statement that as the decline in passenger demand still outstripped the capacity cuts made by airlines, yields have not improved.

“The worst may be over. However, we have not yet seen any signs that recovery is imminent,” he said.

Lufthansa’s Zlatic said the effects of the economic downturn would end soon in Vietnam and air travel demand would grow again.

Hai of Hong Kong Airlines said though sales in the first few months were not so good, Vietnam, with its stable economic growth, remains a promising market.

“During these hard times, we try to launch new services and manage our flight schedules well to overcome the difficulties. In the longer term, we are still scouting for new markets like HCMC and Da Nang.”

Source: TN, Agencies

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What’s the Recipe for Marketing Success with Social Media? Q&A with IBM's Sandy Carter


As social media usage continues to skyrocket, companies are trying to get up to speed on not only using these tools, but finding a way to successfully integrate them into their existing business strategies. At the Business-to-Business Forum, Sandy Carter, Vice President, SOA, BPM and WebSphere at IBM Corporation, will help attendees not only learn more about social media, but also how and when these tools should be added to a company’s existing marketing mix.

In this interview, Sandy gives us her take on the importance of social media for businesses, and some background on some of the topics she’ll be covering during her session at the B2B Forum in Boston:

Q - At the MarketingProfs B2B Forum, you'll be leading a session entitled Marketing 2.0: Integrating Social Media Into Your Marketing Mix. How important is it for a company to consider integrating social media into their existing marketing plan, or should they try to make social media separate from the company's other communication efforts?

A - I believe firmly that social media represents a new set of marketing tools. By integrating the Web 2.0 technologies into a marketing plan, you strengthen the plan overall to drive business. If you isolate your social media team, you will not see the results that you need. In fact, I think just as strong compelling value propositions are core to all marketing, social techniques and the use of Web 2.0 technology should be core to all integrated marketing going forward. (You can learn more about a formal methodology I recommend by visiting the site for my recent book, "The New Language of Marketing 2.0") For example, if you run in-person events today to drive your business, you can add in a Twitter drive to the event to increase registrations. You can generate customer loyalty—or fans—by having them tell their stories on blogs, or post pictures on Flickr. You can even use web 2.0 to help follow-up on the leads with enurturing or form an online community to supplement your in-person customer boards. The point is that the magic is in the marketing mix. Not the tools!

Q - You obviously work at a very large company. What special considerations do you think a large company faces in trying to use social media, that a small business for example, might not have to worry about?

A - Well, I think everything is a trade-off. There are some advantages that the small companies have and some that the big companies have. Since I work for a large company, I am envious at times at how fast a small company can experiment. This area is changing so rapidly and so many new tools are being added daily, that I think that being able to change on a dime is crucial or to add in a new tool without having to get tons of signoffs could make the difference in a first-mover advantage. But large companies have more resources. And that comes with an advantage as well.

However, the bottom line is I think the primary difference here is not in big or small. But the difference is in how close you are to your customers. The hair stylist I go to just recently used Facebook to increase the purchase of one of his services by 500%. Why? Because he used social media tools with his traditional customer retention methods. He understands what his customers are looking for and could add value. This is similar as to when IBM really listens to its customers and develops its next product by learning not only from its current customers, and focus groups, but by dialoguing in the blogs on product requirements and betas. The bottom line is do you know your goals and your differentiation well enough to use the tools appropriately?

Q - As you know, many companies are interested in learning more about social media. What do you think are some of the common misconceptions these companies have about social media?

A - Great question! I think there are a few! First, some companies believe that social media is a magic elixir. They don't realize that social media is just another set of tools to add to the marketing toolbox. Second, some companies focus on the coolness of social media. They get enamored with the tools themselves, and don't focus on what they are trying to do—drive business! And finally I think that companies don't realize that this is brand new. It is not what they studied in college and is bigger than marketing. It encompasses the business. Social technologies should be part of your market intelligence, your strategic delivery, your development cycle, your customer support, your marketing and your sales. It is a cultural change in how we create business.

Q - One of the biggest concerns about using social media, is finding a way to get measurable results. For the company that's wanting to find the ROI of their social media efforts, what should they be looking to track to tell if their social media initiatives are effective?

A - We are all already in the practice of tracking the effectiveness of all the elements of our marketing mix. So it is a great thing to measure the value of social media. I love what Dell did with its Twitter channel by using a special discount code to enable it to track the value. At IBM we add in Web 2.0 elements and measure the effectiveness—whether driving new opportunities or progressing current opportunity—over time. That said, think about the value of a relationship—it is hard to measure that personal relationship just as it is in measuring the online one ! Now even as I write this, IBM and MIT did try to estimate the value of the online connection. IBM Research and MIT's Sloan School of Management found that the average e-mail contact was worth $948 in revenue. To unearth that and other data, they used math formulas to analyze the email traffic, address book and buddy lists of 2600 IBM consultants over a year!

However, you can't measure everything and just because you can measure something doesn't mean that it is the right thing to be watching!

Q - Is social media right for every business?

A - I think that this question is the wrong one. The right one is—what is your overall goal for your company and its business model? What is your compelling value proposition that truly sets you apart? Then you can decide which social media tools to add to your overall company strategy and execution.
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Art and Buddhism meet at city exhibition



A sculpture depicting the Maitreya Buddha to be displayed at an exhibition in Ho Chi Minh City for the Buddha’s birthday
Buddhist and other art works will be on show in Ho Chi Minh City from Sunday until next Friday for the 2553rd anniversary of the Buddha’s birth.

The profits from the exhibition of paintings, calligraphy, sculptures and decorated stones by local artists and monks will be given to 80 city workers with fatal diseases.

As well as art to examine and buy, there will be poetry chanting, martial art demonstrations, and performances of cai luong (southern folk opera) and other music.

La Pagoda in Go Vap District is the main organizer of the event at the HCMC Labor and Culture Palace, 55B Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Street, District 1.

Reported by Ha Dinh Nguyen

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Meltdown losses of '$4 trillion'


By Steve Schifferes
Economics reporter, BBC News

Street sign on Wall Street, New York
Bank losses are even bigger than expected one year ago, the IMF says

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned credit crunch losses could reach $4 trillion (£2.75tn), damaging the financial system for years to come.

It says that even if urgent action is taken to clean up the banking system, the process will be "slow and painful", delaying economic recovery.

Banks may need $1.7 trillion in additional capital, the IMF forecasts.

And it warns that the cost of the bail-out will severely hit UK government finances with its added debt burden.

The power to force banks to raise additional capital rests with national regulators, such as the FSA, not the IMF
Robert Peston
BBC Business Editor

But the IMF corrected its estimate of the cost to the UK of the bail-out from 13.4% of GDP, or £200bn, to 9.4% of GDP, or £130bn.

The Treasury confirmed that the chancellor will be making a "prudent" estimate of the cost of the bail-out in the Budget, but many commentators believe this will be around £60bn, or half the IMF estimate.

The US and Ireland will face even higher government bills for the bail-out, according to IMF estimates.

Rising bill

One year ago, the IMF estimated that total losses from the credit crunch would be $1tn, which has been exceeded, showing how rapidly the financial meltdown has escalated.

The IMF now says that banks are likely to lose $2.7tn, but other financial institutions such as insurance companies and pension funds are also coming under strain.

And it says that emerging market economies, which will need $1.8tn in refinancing next year, will be hard-hit by the collapse of cross-border lending. It predicts that there will be no net private lending at all to developing countries this year.

WHY $4TN LOSS MATTERS
A protestor on Wall Street complains about US government bail-outs
The banks' huge losses have made them reluctant to lend
The lack of lending has pushed the world economy into a deep recession
Government budgets are strained by the cost of the bail-outs, hitting taxpayers

The report comes as the IMF and World Bank are beginning their spring meeting in Washington, after receiving a promise of $750bn in fresh funds agreed at the G20 summit.

Policy response

The IMF's latest Global Stability Report says that the banking system has not yet been stabilised, despite the billions of dollars spent by governments.

But it warns that political support for further bank bail-outs is waning.

It says that there may be "a real risk that governments will be reluctant to allocate enough resources to solve the problem" because the public has become "disillusioned by what it perceives as abuse of taxpayer funds".

The situation is especially difficult in the US, where Congress appears reluctant to allocate additional bail-out funds above the $700bn approved last autumn despite the inclusion of another $750bn in President Obama's latest budget proposal.


Systemic risks remain high and the adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the real economy has yet to be arrested

IMF

The US Treasury has instead proposed a private-public partnership to buy up troubled assets underwritten by loans from the Federal Reserve.

But the IMF comments that "uncertainty about political reactions may undermine the likelihood that the the private sector will constructively engage in finding orderly solution to financial stress".

Deeper recession

The IMF says that restoring the banking system so that it functions normally is likely to take several years, and this will make the recession longer and deeper than usual.

But it warns that if policies are unclear or not implemented forcefully and promptly, "the recovery process is even more delayed and the costs, in terms of taxpayer money and economic activity, are even greater".

It adds that the worldwide recession has deepened the financial crisis.

COST OF REBUILDING BANKS
wall street bull
US banks: $275bn
Eurozone banks: $725bn
UK banks: $250bn
Other European banks: $225bn
Source: IMF, based on 6% capital/assets ratio

"Systemic risks remain high and the adverse feedback loop between the financial system and the real economy has yet to be arrested, despite the wide range of policy actions and some limited improvement in market functioning.

"Further effective government action - particularly geared toward cleansing balance sheets and strengthening institutions - will be required to stabilise the global financial system and to provide the foundation for a sustainable economic recovery."

On Wednesday, the IMF will present its world economic forecast.

It is expected to be the gloomiest for 60 years, with the world falling into a global recession, and an even sharper decline in output in the rich countries.

An earlier version of this story referred to an IMF estimate that the total cost of bailing out the UK banking system would add 13.4%, or about £200bn, to government debt. The IMF has since corrected this figure, and has returned to their earlier estimate that it would cost 9.4% of GDP, or about £130bn.

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Jet fuel supplier fined VND3 billion for monopoly abuse





Monopoly fuel supplier Vietnam Air Petrol Company has been fined VND3 billion (US$168,300) for cutting off supplies to Jetstar Pacific Airlines without justification on April 1 last year.

The Vietnam Competition Council said at a public hearing Tuesday the petrol company, known better as Vinapco, had abused its monopoly position and flouted the Law of Competition.

A senior official of the council, who wished to be unnamed, told Thanh Nien that Vinapco had imposed unfavorable business conditions on its customer since it is aware that commercial airlines cannot turn to another source of supply in the country.

The penalty was only cautionary, not punitive, because this was its first violation, another council member said.

Vinapco, an affiliate of state-owned Vietnam Airlines, stopped supplying fuel to the Jetstar Pacific fleet on April 1, 2008 as the two sides were arguing over a price increase.

The delay grounded 30 flights supposed to carry some 5,000 passengers. The government ordered Vinapco to resume supply, ending the impasse.

The carrier said at the time that Vinapco had contracted to charge VND593,000 for a ton of aviation fuel for the whole year. But less than three months after the deal, Vinapco demanded VND750,000.

Vinapco said it needed to increase fuel costs to cover the skyrocketing world oil prices, which went past $100 a barrel at that time.

When the dispute broke out, Jetstar Pacific was known as Pacific Airlines. The domestic carrier later transformed into the low-cost Jetstar Pacific in May 2008 under an agreement with Australia’s Jetstar Airways.

At the hearing on Tuesday the budget airline called for separating Vinapco from its rival Vietnam Airlines.

The Vietnam Competition Council said it would forward the proposal to official agencies and tighten control over monopoly services.

Vinapco has 30 days to appeal Tuesday’s ruling, which is also the first anticompetitive ruling the Vietnam Competition Council has made.

Reported by Xuan Danh

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Life of construction workers hangs by a thin thread



Workers at a construction site in Ho Chi Minh City’s District 7 work without helmets or other protective gear.
There was no fence and no warning sign as Hoang Lam Tinh was hit in the chest by the excavator and pushed to his death into a nearby drain.

The 48-year-old from the north-central province of Thanh Hoa was working on a construction site in Ho Chi Minh City’s District 5 when the accident happened last month.

With weak regulations and enforcement, and even weaker punishment levied on investors and contractors, serious accidents are just waiting to happen at hundreds of construction sites in the city, placing the lives of hundreds of workers in the balance.

There were eight accidents involving fatalities at construction sites in the city in the first nine days of this month.

Many of the workers on construction sites are poor migrants from far off places working for a pittance without even the minimum safety equipment to provide a subsistence livelihood for their families.

Projects galore

As the nation’s commercial hub, thousands of construction sites function everyday in the city, from minor ones like residences to major infrastructural projects like the East-West Highway.

The East-West Highway project, that runs through eight districts as it links districts 1 and 2, is one of the city’s major projects but few construction sites along the potential highway have fences around the operating machines.

Many construction workers don’t wear protective clothing or safety helmets.

It is common to see a worker in regular street clothes directing a crane driver to lower huge iron beams into the right spot.

At many buildings under construction in District 7, workers on the edge of upper floors can fall at any time as there are no barriers.

According to inspectors from the Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs, most accidents at construction sites are the result of such falls, as well as scaffolding collapses and electric shocks.

Deputy chief inspector of the department, Nguyen Quoc Viet, said the “safety index at city construction sites has dropped to the alarming point.”

The composition of the construction workforce changes constantly and officials cannot open working safety courses every time there’s a new worker, Viet said.

He said most construction investors and contractors “are not aware of labor laws.”

The price surge in construction materials from mid-2008 onwards has added to the reasons the contractors’ foremen do not equip workers with protective gear, maintain fences, or post warning signs, Viet said.

Early this month, foreman Nguyen Huu Cong of the New Saigon residential complex in Nha Be District died after falling from the 21st to the 15th floor along an unfenced elevator pit.

Labor regulations stipulate that there should be one official responsible of ensuring safety at a site of more than 300 workers.

But in the construction industry with a high risk of accidents, that ratio is just too small, Viet said.

Puny punishments

Viet’s superior Huynh Tan Dung said inspecting a construction site requires officials from more than just one agency.

“But such joint inspection has not been the norm so far,” Dung said.

Current mechanisms allow individual labor inspectors to make uninformed checks.

But the inspectors can only fine people working at the sites, not the project investor or contractor who hires the foreman. And the maximum fine is VND200,000 (US$11.47) for an error.

When there’s an accident involving the investor or contractor’s responsibility, each will be fined a maximum of VND20 million ($1,147).

In 2007, the city People’s Committee ordered the Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs and the Department of Construction to send their inspectors together to check major construction sites in the city.

But Viet said the number of sites that the inspectors actually look at is nothing compared to the total number.

He suggested construction inspectors of wards and communes work more at minor construction sites in their areas.

Viet also blamed the police for creating more trouble in the process to find out why an accident happened.

As no time limit has been imposed on the police to communicate their findings to the inspectors, they keep it to themselves for far too long.

Thus, the inspectors end up sharing the findings three to six months after an accident, instead of 40 days as stipulated, Viet said.

The police also show little support when the inspectors suggest bringing the case to court, he said.

Source: Tuoi Tre

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Home prices dip alongside interest cuts, cheap materials



A broker (2nd, L) at real estate company Dat Xanh points out locations to potential buyers
Interest rate cuts and cheaper construction material costs have pushed down housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City, said a senior executive at a property company.

Some developers have reduced apartment prices by 40-50 percent from last year as construction material prices have fallen to a three-year low, said Luong Tri Thin, general director of property firm Dat Xanh.

He also said builders could now borrow easier from banks, enabling them to complete projects at lower initial costs.

Efforts to stimulate the economy have seen the central bank slash the key rate from 8.5 percent to 7 percent, allowing commercial banks to charge interest on dong loans up to 50 percent above the benchmark rate, which is now only 10.5 percent a year.

Dat Xanh plans to offer 224 apartments in the SunView Apartment building in HCMC’s Thu Duc District at the price of US$764 per square meter, a drop of more than $500 a square meter from last year.

According to the HCMC-based firm, 60 percent of its customers wanted to pay no more than VND1 billion ($57,200) for a full apartment while only 10 percent were in the market for apartments at $1,500 per square meter or more.

Property firm Vinh Tuong has begun selling apartments in Block 3 of the Tan Tao Building in Binh Tan District at some VND9 million ($515) per square meter. Each 70-120 square meter apartment has two bedrooms.

Apartments in Nam Long Company’s Ehome Building in District 9, which is under construction and scheduled to open by September, are on sale for VND11.5-14.5 million ($671-847) per square meter.

Apartments larger than 50 square meters at the 17-storey Sunshine Building under construction in Thu Duc District are expected to be sold for only VND500-VND600 million ($29,197-35,036).

HAGL Land cut prices for its new Hoang Anh River View apartments in District 2 by 40 percent to US$1,350 per square meter last week.

It has also lowered prices at another project in Nha Be District to $1,250 from $1,800 per square meter.

Le Hung, director of HAGL Land, said the price cuts would “revolutionize” the HCMC property market in line with government efforts to stimulate the economy.

In Hanoi, medium and low-income apartments are selling for a whopping VND25 million per square meter, said Le Xuan Truong at property firm B.D.S Co.

Thin told Thanh Nien that property firms didn’t expect profits this year to look anything like they did in 2007, when prices and sales went through the roof.

But 2009 is set to beat dreary 2008.

“Their earning growth target is 20- 30 percent this year,” said Thin.

In another boon to the local property market, several banks have recently begun offering loans for house and apartment purchases.

Western Bank is lending a maximum of VND1 billion to potential homebuyers at interest rates of between 10.5-13.2 percent a year for the first three months.

Tien Phong Bank is offering 15-year mortgages worth 70 percent of the house value at 10 percent interest.

Vietnam Export-Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank, or Eximbank, Asia Commercial Bank and Sacombank are also offering housing loans.

Reported by Thanh Nien staff

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Ministry issues policy on condo fees, use of public space





The Ministry of Construction has issued policies on the use of public and private space in apartment buildings as well as on fees charged to condominium owners.

The ministry circular requires the apartment sales contract to distinguish between the buyer’s private space and the building’s public space, such as the hallways, stairs, lifts and parking lots.

Both the Housing Law and ministry regulations state that apartment building residents do not have to pay to use public spaces.

Condominium contracts must designate what facilities might be owned by the buildings’ developers such as swimming pools, tennis courts or supermarkets.

Deputy Minister Nguyen Tran Nam said the instructions should have come sooner to prevent the many conflicts that have flared up between apartment occupants and investors.

Some apartment building developers in Ho Chi Minh City asked residents to pay enormous fees of up to US$25,000 for a car parking space or to use meeting areas, child care facilities and even libraries.

Also in line with the new circular, all contracts must specify the apartment’s exact measurements in detail.

Two percent of each apartment price will be used for maintenance fees. If the amount is not enough, the developers can ask residents to contribute extra fees based on the size of their apartments, according to the ministry.

The sale contract must mention these fees and estimate the amount each household must pay to cover the other costs of operating the buildings, Nam said.

City and provincial People’s Committees will decide the maximum operation fee for apartment buildings in their jurisdiction, according to the ministry.

The developers and buyers will rely on those ceiling fees to work out specific payments in their sales contracts.

Nam said committees are allowed to change the ceiling fees every year depending on market prices.

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Real estate on the way up, says analyst



Customers at the HAGL Land office on Monday. The company has cut the prices for its new Hoang Anh River View apartments in Ho Chi Minh City’s District 2 by 40 percent to US$1,350 per square meter.
The Ho Chi Minh City property market has started edging up again after many developers decided to reduce prices to make them more realistic, a top industry executive said.

Le Hoang Chau, chairman of the HCMC Real Estate Association, told Thanh Nien: “I notice there are signs of a recovery.

“I expect the market to rise this year, especially after June.”

“The good thing is many developers now know they need to balance their profits with buyers’ interest by lowering prices.”

HAGL Land on Monday cut the prices for its new Hoang Anh River View apartments in District 2 by 40 percent to US$1,350 per square meter.

It also lowered prices at another project in Nha Be District to $1,250 from $1,800 per square meter.

Le Hung, director of HAGL Land, said the price cuts are “revolutionary” in the HCMC property market and are in line with government efforts to stimulate the economy.

“The large number of customers coming to register for purchases shows there are positive signs for the luxury apartment market,” Hung said. “If prices are reasonable and close to the real value of the property, investors will be attracted again.”

Hung said the price cuts were possible because his company had purchased land for the projects at low prices a long time ago and construction material prices have also dropped recently.

Though apartment prices have been lowered, the quality would remain the same, he assured.

Dang Hong Anh, chairman of Saigon Thuong Tin Real Estate Joint Stock Company, or Sacomreal, an affiliate of the listed Sacombank, said the price cuts at the two HAGL apartment projects, accompanied by the easy credit flows from four banks – BIDV, Vietcombank, Sacombank and Military Bank – have helped lure customers back to the market.

The banks lend up to 70 percent of the value of an apartment at an interest rate of 10.5 percent for up to 15 years.

HAGL Land and Sacomreal reported more than 300 inquiries for the two projects on Monday with 100 people making deposits.

According to Sacomreal, apartment sales at the Orient Apartment project in District 4 have also increased sharply in recent days.

Duong Dinh Tuan, a resident of Thu Duc District, said he has booked an apartment in Hoang Anh River View after withdrawing all his savings. He said he thought it is better to invest in real estate since bank interest rates are rather low.

Many home buyers said it has become easier to buy apartments because many banks are trying to get credit flowing, offering loans at lower rates.

Sacombank General Director Tran Xuan Huy said his bank has earmarked VND3-5 trillion ($172-287 million) for loans for buying and repairing property at flexible interest rates.

The State Bank of Vietnam, the central bank, on January 23 cut its benchmark interest rate for a sixth time since October, to 7 percent from 8.5 percent, to head off an economic slowdown.

The central bank said in a statement earlier this month that borrowing costs have dropped by 0.5-1.2 percent since December to 10.82-11.52 percent.

Lam Van Chuc, chairman of Phuc Duc Real Estate Company, said he thought the property market would not recover until the end of 2010.

“But with trading increasing recently, it is likely that the real estate market will recover by mid-year,” he said.

“As deposit interest rates are currently at low levels, many people will choose to invest in real estate, including apartments. Even if they cannot earn high profits like before, they can rent out their apartments.”

The prices of not only apartments but also land have been cut to their actual value to attract buyers, Chuc added.

A director of a real estate company, who wished to remain unnamed, said after Phu My Hung Corporation sold out all 133 units in a new apartment block earlier this year, many developers regained belief in the market and prepared to launch new products.

Sacomreal’s Anh said his company would soon begin to sell more than 1,500 luxury apartments in District 7 and begin planning some other new projects, Lao Dong (Labor) newspaper reported.

Thu Duc House announced it would unveil a residential project with 260 apartments today.

The company said it would give priority to home buyers who have a real need – rather than speculators – and would try to keep prices reasonable.

Source: TN, TT

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Bank of America Slides on Concern for Nationalization (Update1)

By David Mildenberg

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the nation’s largest bank, declined to its lowest level in New York trading since 1984 on concern regulators may seize the company after a $138 billion U.S. bailout package failed to halt the slide.

The bank fell 55 cents, or 12 percent, to $4.15 at 10:44 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, and earlier declined as much as 20 percent to its lowest level since October 1984. The stock of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company has dropped for six days and lost more than two-thirds of its value this year.

The descent follows the U.S. government’s latest infusion of $20 billion in fresh capital and a plan to share losses on $118 billion in mortgages, corporate loans and derivatives. The U.S. previously committed $25 billion to the bank and Merrill Lynch & Co., acquired earlier this year. Bank of America lost $1.79 billion in the fourth quarter, its first deficit since 1991, as more borrowers fell behind on paying their loans.

“Washington is dithering while the banking stocks are going to zero,” said Nancy Bush, an independent bank analyst in Annandale, New Jersey. Trading is being driven by speculation that the government may take over Bank of America and other lenders as part of a plan to bolster the nation’s financial system, she said.

Scott Silvestri, a spokesman for the bank, said the company declined to comment on its stock price.

Tipping Point

“You have got to nationalize the banks,” said Paul Miller, analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. in an interview yesterday, adding that the public may not be ready for Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. to be seized. “We’re past the tipping point, and the government is taking small steps.”

Citigroup, which dropped as much as 8.3 percent today, fell 11 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $3.38.

Bank of America’s risk increased after it acquired Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. home lender, and Merrill Lynch, the world’s largest brokerage, said David Dietze, president of Point View Financial Services Inc. in Summit, New Jersey, in an interview late yesterday. Merrill lost $15.3 billion in the fourth quarter.

“There is this lurking shadow of nationalization which haunts the banks, but particularly Bank of America,” he said. “It’s pretty spooky.”

To contact the reporter on this story: David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 5, 2009 11:01 EST
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Hanoi workers net highest bonus of $4,500


Hanoi’s Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs said the highest annual bonus granted to employees in the capital so far was VND80 million (US$4,500) each.

The employees who will receive the fat bonus work for a foreign-invested beverages company, according to the department. Further details were not available.

The average bonus at foreign-invested enterprises in the capital city was VND3.1 million ($177) – a 1.5 percent increase over last year; and the lowest bonus at a foreign-invested firm was VND300,000 a person. Overall, the lowest bonus given in Hanoi this year was VND100,000 a person ($5.71).

Only 79 businesses have provided information about bonuses.

Source: SGGP

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Dollar falls on free market





Dollar prices have dropped on the free market as the high demand on sentiment following the central bank’s move to weaken the dong has gradually reduced.

After the State Bank of Vietnam fixed the dong’s rate 3 percent down against the dollar to spur exports on December 25, the dong was traded for as much as VND17,600 per dollar at moneychangers in Hanoi.

But Sunday, the currency was traded at between VND17,400 and VND17,500, a moneychanger on Hoan Kiem District’s Ha Trung Street said.

There were less customers buying or selling the greenback on the free market, according to moneychangers.

Dung, owner of Dung Tan Gold Shop on Hang Bac Street, said only a few small-time customers visited her shop to exchange currency Sunday afternoon.

An executive from the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) said many businesses rushed to buy the dollar just after the central bank weakened the dong as sentiment shifted.

Experts said the jump in dollar prices on the free market on December 25 was driven by sentiment, not real demand.

The free market rates Sunday moved closer to rates at commercial banks where the demand to buy dollars was still strong.

The dong was quoted at VND17,380/17,495 per dollar on Vietcombank’s website Sunday afternoon.

Nguyen Phuoc Thanh, general director of Vietcombank, the country’s third largest lender, said as dong interest rates were now low, many people bought dollars to pay off their dollar-denominated loans early and switched to dong loans later, sending the dollar demand high.

The BIDV executive expected the dollar supply would increase as soon as remittances rose ahead of Tet (Lunar New Year) holidays and export companies sold more dollars when they realized the real demand was less than expected.

Reported by Thanh Nien staff

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No delay in personal income tax law, house leaders say



Early birds at the Hanoi tax office arrive to get a slot number for submitting applications for the permanent tax code.
The Personal Income Tax Law will take effect next Thursday as scheduled but the Party Politburo will take the final decision on how it will be enforced, the vice speaker of the Vietnamese parliament said Saturday.

There have been calls for deferment of the law because of its possible impacts in the context of an economic slowdown when the need of the government is to stimulate investment and boost consumer spending.

The law stipulates that the taxable income threshold is VND4 million ($238) monthly for both locals and foreigners working in Vietnam, with taxpayers allowed deductions of VND1.6 million (US$95) for each dependent.

National Assembly (NA) deputy chairman Nguyen Duc Kien said that the government and the NA would refer three proposals on implementing the law to the Politburo, the decision-making committee of the Communist Party, to make a final decision.

Under the first proposal, enforcement of the law will be postponed until July 2009 or January 2010.

During that time, the ordinance on high-income people would still take effect but grant a 30 percent reduction. Under the ordinance, people whose monthly income exceeds VND5 million have to pay income tax without any deduction for dependents.

Under the second proposal, a one-year waiver will be granted for incomes on capital gains and stock market transactions as well as those on the transfer of contributed capital and interest received on loans. A 30 percent personal income one-year tax cut for households and individuals who had been subjected to the corporate tax earlier is also included in this proposal.

The third proposal made by the NA has all taxpayers having their tax payment deferred until next October when the NA convenes its year-end session, for further decisions.

But the NA Standing Committee unanimously decided Saturday that the Personal Income Tax law would take effect on January 1, 2009 as approved at its plenary session in November last year.

Tong Thi Phong, another NA deputy chair, also said it was unnecessary to convene an extraordinary session to decide upon this issue.

The five-day session of the NA Standing Committee wrapped up Saturday in Hanoi.

Rush for tax code applications

By 4 a.m. on Friday, people were already queuing up at the Hanoi tax office, braving the chilly weather to submit applications to obtain tax codes.

Nguyen Thanh Loc, an employee of a Hanoi-based transport and forwarding company, said he had to get up half an hour earlier so that he could be the first to hand in the applications for his firm.

To his chagrin, however, he received slot number 28, meaning he could have to wait until the afternoon to have the applications processed.

Pham The Dung, who arrived at the tax agency on behalf of an animal feed company, said his lot number was 34 despite the fact that he had come at 5a.m.

Both Loc and Dung told Thanh Nien they had to come early because they hadn’t been served during the previous days because of the large crowds.

Not as lucky as Loc or Dung, Linh, who represents the Hanoi Natural Science University, said she was not expecting her documents to be processed on that day because she arrived at the office only at 7:15 a.m.

“I might as well come tomorrow,” Linh said.

Every organization or company is required to hand in their applications by the end of this month so that their personnel are granted a permanent tax code.

Each organization has deputed its representatives to carry hundreds of documents to the tax agency where the personnel are understaffed, leading to an overload.

Many people have opted to come very early to pick up their slot numbers. Thanh Nien found a person at 3:30 a.m. on Thursday.

But many people have complained about the way the Hanoi tax agency has handled their applications, saying it had used only two out of 10 counters to receive them.

Only 32 firms were able to submit their documentation in a morning session, they said.

Thanh Nien found that there was considerable pushing and shoving among applicants to get to the counter early.

The tax office was asking applicants to start from scratch the next day if their paperwork was not accepted within the day, said Nguyen Xuan Hoang, an Amway company employee.

Many people have resorted to staying in the queue no matter how hungry and thirsty they were, applicants said.

Thanh Nien could not contact senior officials of the Hanoi tax office on Friday for a comment.

Reported by Thanh Nien staff

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