FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After rising toward a 2-day high of 80.92 on risk appetite following the NFP report, USD/JPY has retraced part of the initial spike and is consolidating around 80.50.

According to Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, "Despite recent spike, 4 hours chart shows price still contained below a bearish 20 SMA yet indicators had erased past days bearish tone and are now aiming higher, helping keep the downside limited. A recovery, as long as above 80.00 should then be expected for this end of the week."

With USD/JPY currently at 80.55, Bednarik sees next support levels at 80.40, 80.10 and 79.80, while she locates next resistance levels at 80.90, 81.15 and then 81.40.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The EUR/USD suffered one of the worst 2-day loss in history. The pair traded at 1.4900 on Thursday and finished the week around 1.4350. The decline started with Trichet words singling that the ECB is not going to raise rate in the next meeting and on Friday, rumors about Greece leaving the Eurozone accelerated the decline.

The pair bottomed in the last day of the week at 1.4313, 620 pips below weekly highs reached on Wednesday at 1.4933 when it traded at the highest level in 17 months. The Euro was the worst performer during the week among majors.

In the Eurozone, Greece denied that it is considering leavening the euro. There were also speculations about a debt restructuration. “Pending the substantiation of this speculation, the euro will remain under pressure; but it will also hold off from a major run”, said Senior Currency Strategist from Daily FX, John Kicklighter.

A confirmation that Greece intends to leave, would send the euro sharply lower according to the Daily FX analyst. “Alternatively, putting to rest this speculation could lead to a temporary bounce that unwinds this morning’s losses. However, that doesn’t mean that it will recover any more ground than that; as traders now realize that the market is highly sensitive to concerns over the region’s financial stability”, Mr. Kicklighter added.

“The euro sell-off could continue on further position unwinding – especially if the correction in commodity prices runs further – and even lower levels in EUR/USD in the short term cannot be ruled”, analyst at the Danske Bank wrote in a report before the Greece news hit the wires. They concluded that in the short term the pair could continue to go lower if the indications that the global economy is slowing down spreads to equity markets, but they still see the underlying trend for a higher EUR/USD. “Hence, on the back of ECB hikes and easy monetary policy in the US, we will look for attractive levels to reposition for renewed upside”.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The EUR/USD peaked earlier at 1.4540/47, the highest price since January 14, 2010 but lost bullish momentum, moved in ranges for some hour and currently is testing levels below 1.4500. The pair is retreating after rising 200 pips from today’s opening price, extending to almost 400 pips the distance from Monday’s low.

The EUR/USD hit recently at 1.4987 the lowest price since early European session and remains hovering barely below the 1.4500 level.

Fan Yang, Chief Technical Strategist at FXTimes points out that the pair “is likely returning to its bullish mode”. “A swing projection seen in the daily chart is suggested by a positive reversal signal where the RSI low is lower, but the price low is higher”, Yang says. He affirms that the swing projection targets 1.4675, “this is the short-term target at the moment”.

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FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – Stocks rose sharply in Wall Street with the Dow Jones ending at the highest level since June 2008. Gold reached fresh record highs above $1,500 an ounce as the Dollar posted losses across the board.

The DOW rose 1.52% on Wednesday and has risen more than 300 point in three days. Earnings reports and better-than-expected housing data triggered optimism in Wall Street.

In the currency market, the Aussie and the Swiss Franc were among the best performers. The Yen trimmed losses on American hours but finished mostly lower in the market.

The EUR/USD reached fresh 15-month highs at 1.4545, pulled back afterwards to 1.4485 but managed to rise back above 1.4500. Cable remained steady on American hours consolidating around 1.6400, barely below April highs.

The USD/CHF extended its decline to fresh record lows at 0.8870/80 and remains under pressure. Greenback is also trading at record lows against the Aussie.

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FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – USD/CHF remains steady around 0.8960, near daily low set at 0.8942 just around US opening. The pair has been falling straight for 5 days already, accumulating over 400 pips to the downside this month. All time low, set on March 16th following Japan’s earthquake, lies at 0.8860.

The pair, that seems extremely oversold according to Valeria Bednarik, Fxstreet.com chief analyst, holds its “bearish momentum intact both in 1 and 4 hours charts, and despite extreme oversold readings are clear in both, pair seems not ready for a bullish corrective movement. Lose of 0.8940 daily low, should accelerate the slide towards mentioned record low”.

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DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

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Overnight Headlines

• US Dollar Gains vs Euro, Pound on Safety Demand as Stocks Decline
• New Zealand Dollar Outperforms on Rising Payouts for Dairy Farmers
• UK House Prices Surge in February, Overall Trend Still Disappointing

Critical Levels

CCY	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
EURUSD	1.3574	1.3745
GBPUSD	1.6165	1.6328

The Euro and the British Pound declined, falling as much as 0.3 and 0.2 percent respectively against the US Dollar as stocks sold off in overnight trade, boosting safety-seeking demand for the benchmark currency. We remain short EURUSD.

Asia Session: What Happened

CCY	GMT	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
JPY	15:00	Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report	-	-	-
NZD	21:30	Performance Services Index (JAN)	50.8	-	52.1 (R-)
GBP	0:01	Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (FEB)	3.1%	-	0.3%
GBP	0:01	Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (FEB)	0.3%	-	0.4%
NZD	2:00	Credit Card Spending (MoM) (JAN)	3.8%	-	-1.7% (R-)
NZD	2:00	Credit Card Spending (YoY) (JAN)	5.6%	-	2.1% (R+)
JPY	4:30	All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)	-0.2%	-	-0.2% (R-)

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, overlooking mixed economic data and a selloff across Asian stock exchanges, amid speculation that Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd – the world’s largest dairy exporter – may raise its payout to farmers after milk powder prices hit a 31-month high. Higher payouts promise to boost hiring and spending in New Zealand’s top export industry, adding fuel to the sluggish economic recovery. The currency rose 0.5 percent on average against its major counterparts.

The New ZealandPerformance of Services Index slid to 50.8 in January, showing the non-manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in 15 months. Meanwhile, Credit Card Spending soared 5.6 percent from the preceding year, showing the fastest annual growth rate since May 2008. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index fell as downward pressure from last week’s Chinese RRR increase was compounded by spreading tensions in the Middle East, with uprisings spreading to Libya, Bahrain and Iran.

UK House Prices surged in February, rising 3.1 percent from the previous month according to report from Righmove Plc, an online listing of for-sale properties. The increase is the largest in four months. Looking past month-to-month volatility however, the trend in house prices remains troubling. Indeed, the same report showed prices added just 0.3 percent from a year before, putting the annualized growth rate at the slowest in 16 months.

Euro Session: What to Expect

CCY	GMT	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
CHF	8:00	Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JAN)	-	6.6%	Low
EUR	8:00	French PMI Manufacturing (FEB P)	55.3	54.9	Low
EUR	8:00	French PMI Services (FEB P)	58.0	57.8	Low
EUR	8:30	German PMI Manufacturing (FEB A)	60.3	60.5	Medium
EUR	8:30	German PMI Services (FEB A)	60.2	60.3	Medium
EUR	9:00	German IFO - Business Climate (FEB)	110.3	110.3	Medium
EUR	9:00	German IFO - Current Assessment (FEB)	113	112.8	Medium
EUR	9:00	German IFO – Expectations (FEB)	107.5	107.8	Medium
EUR	9:00	Euro-Zone PMI Composite (FEB A)	56.9	57.0	Medium
EUR	9:00	Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (FEB A)	57.2	57.3	Medium
EUR	9:00	Euro-Zone PMI Services (FEB A)	55.9	55.9	Medium

Risk sentiment is likely to remain a key catalyst for currency markets in European hours as investors continue to fret about mounting tensions sweeping the Middle East and North Africa. Stock index futures ticked lower and stocks sold off in Asia after Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, spoke out on state-run television warning of an impending civil war as Tunisian- and Egyptian-style protests were met with a harsh response from security forces. Libya is the world’s 12th-largest oil exporter.

On the data front, Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence is expected to show sentiment soured a bit, with the closely-watched “Expectations” index down to 107.5 in February having hit a record-high 107.8 in the previous month. Meanwhile, February’s preliminary Euro Zone Purchasing Manager Index figures are set to reveal region-wide economic activity decelerated for the first time since October, driven by a slowdown in manufacturing-sector growth.

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Forex - How Does an Oil Crisis Impact the U.S. Dollar?
By: Kathy Lien on February 22 11 10:01 EST

Oil prices are on the rise and everyone is talking about the possibility of $100 oil. Right now, the rise in oil is accompanied by a rise in the U.S. dollar but will this relationship last? Taking a look back at the two prominent oil shocks of the past four decades (1973 and 1979) and others beyond that, we see that the dollar eventually weakens.

1973 Oil Crisis: Initially Dollar Bullish, Eventually Dollar Bearish

In 1973, oil prices jumped 134% when the members of the OAPEC, which is OPEC plus Egypt and Syria, announced that they were no longer shipping oil to nations that supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt. This effectively shut down exports to the US, Western Europe and Japan. As a result, prices rose significantly to account for the sharp reduction in supply. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar unilaterally raised prices by 17 percent and announced production cuts after negotiations with major oil companies.

In response to this oil shock, the trade weighted US dollar index* as measured against the major currencies first strengthened alongside oil and then sold off immediately. At that time, the Federal Reserve was combating inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. The jump in crude exacerbated the need for further rate hikes, forcing the central bank to bring the Fed Funds target rate from 7.5 percent in May 1973 to a high of 13 percent by the summer of 1974. The focus on inflation was initially dollar bullish but once the rate hikes started to have a serious impact on US growth, the trend turned dollar bearish. Between the third quarter of 1973 and the first quarter of 1975, GDP growth contracted five out of the seven quarters and in response to the deterioration in growth, the US dollar erased all of its gains.

1973oil

1979 Oil Crisis: Initially Dollar Bullish, Eventually Dollar Bearish

The US’ second oil crisis in 1979 was triggered by the Iranian revolution and exacerbated by a gasoline shortage. OPEC raised prices by 14.5 percent on April 1st and the US Department of Energy announced phased oil price decontrols which involved the gradual increased of old oil price ceilings. Shortly thereafter, OEC raised prices a second time by 15 percent, the US halted imports from Iran, while Kuwait, Iran and Libya cut production. Saudi Arabia also eventually raised their market crude prices to $24 per barrel and because of all of these factors, crude oil prices increased 118 percent between January 1979 and December 1979.

The price action of the US dollar during that time was very similar to the price action of the greenback in 1973; it first rallied and then sold off. At that time, the Federal Reserve was also hiking interest rates to combat inflationary pressures and the oil price spike exacerbated their degree of rate hikes. Between January 1979 and December 1979, rates where taken from 10 percent to 14 percent and by March of 1980, the Fed Funds rate hit a high of 20 percent. Quarterly GDP growth dropped 7.8 percent in the second quarter of 1980, triggering the dollar’s demise.

1979oil

1990 Oil Price Spike: Persistent Dollar Weakness

Between June and October of 1990, oil prices also jumped 113 percent as a result of the first Gulf War. Interestingly enough, the US dollar behaved very differently for two reasons. The first was the short-lived nature of the oil spike; prices started falling 6 months after the initial rise and the second was the Fed’s monetary policy cycle. Unlike the oil crisis of 1973 or 1979, the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates before the spike and continued to reduce rates throughout 1990 and into 1991 and the dollar was already in a downtrend due to the loosening of monetary policy. The weakness continued as growth slowed with GDP remaining stagnant in third quarter of 1990, and then falling 3 and 2 percent respectively over the next two quarters.

Although the U.S. dollar is rising right now, the abundance of spare capacity and the muted level of inflation means that the Federal Reserve is not pressured by the increase in oil prices. The market basically doesn’t believe that the Fed will start raising interest rates – and they have good reason to feel this way because based upon the last 3 oil shocks, the recovery could suffer from higher commodity prices. Back in the 1990s, the Fed took a break from cutting rates like they are expected to do in June, but they quickly resurrected their rate cuts as the economy slowed. Of course, interest rates were much higher then than they are now, but if growth does not pick up, the Fed may be forced to prolong its asset purchase program.

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Forex - Survey: Sales of Distressed Homes increased in January
By: Calculated Risk on February 22 11 8:22 EST
From Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse: HousingPulse Distressed Property Index Hits 49.6% in January

Perhaps the biggest news in the January data was a sharp rise in the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index or DPI, a key indicator of the health of the housing market. The DPI, or share of total transactions involving distressed properties, climbed from 47.2% in December to 49.6% in January. The increase was a continuation of a trend as the DPI registered just 44.5% back in November.
...
Already, in the key state of California, distressed property transactions account for 66% of the market. In Florida, distressed property transactions account for 63% of the market. And in the combined area of Arizona and Nevada, distressed property transactions are a stunning 72% of home sales.
...
The increase in distressed properties, combined with a reduction in first-time homebuyers, is causing downward pricing pressure to build in the market, especially for the categories of damaged REO and move-in ready REO.

This fits with other recent reports suggesting the percent of distressed sales was very high in January. The Case-Shiller house price data, to be released this morning, will be for last year (October, November and December) - and this survey suggests the repeat transaction house price indexes will show further weakness in 2011.

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Nhà hàng mang tên Heart Attack Grill ở bang Arizona, Mỹ, chuyên phục vụ đồ ăn nhanh, trong đó có burger cỡ bự. Trước khi vào nhà hàng này, khách được cảnh báo bằng một tấm biển lớn đề chữ: "Nơi này không tốt cho sức khỏe của bạn".

Heart Attack Grill thường bị chỉ trích vì phục vụ đồ ăn quá thừa dinh dưỡng.

Tên của bánh burger ở đây được đặt tên giống các cuộc phẫu thuật tim. Loại bánh cỡ lớn nhất chứa tới 8.000 calo.

Những vị khách ăn hết một chiếc bánh cỡ to nhất được ưu tiên đưa ra xe hơi trên xe lăn.

Thực khách thì được mặc đồ giống như bệnh nhân.

"Chúng tôi có lẽ là nhà hàng thẳng thắn nhất nước Mỹ. Này anh, đồ ăn này có thể giết chết anh đấy", chủ nhà hàng tên Hon, đóng vai bác sĩ, cảnh báo.

Nhiều nhà hoạt động chỉ trích nhà hàng. Văn phòng chưởng lý bang Arizona còn dọa đóng cửa nhà hàng vì phản đối tiếp viên ở đây ăn mặc giống các nữ y tá.

Tuy vậy, cửa tiệm vẫn nổi tiếng tới mức chủ của nó tuần nào cũng phải trả lời phỏng vấn của báo chí, đài phát thanh từ khắp nơi trên thế giới.

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Một nhân viên kiểm tra cốc thủy tinh trong phòng tiệc ở cung điện Buckingham.

Lính gác tuần hành tại cung điện vào mùa đông tháng 2/2009.

Chiếc xe đưa Thủ tướng Anh Tony Blair rời cung điện sau khi đến thăm Nữ hoàng Elizabeth để xin phép về việc giải tán quốc hội trước khi bầu cử, ngày 5/4/2005.

Tổng thống Mỹ George W. Bush bước qua phòng tranh của cung điện với Nữ hoàng Elizabeth, ngày 19/11/2003.

Nhân viên chuẩn bị đĩa ăn có dấu hiệu hoàng gia tại bữa tiệc trong cung điện, ngày 25/7/2008.

Nữ hoàng Elizabeth chuẩn bị thu âm bài phát biểu chúc mừng Giáng sinh tại cung điện, hôm 12/12/2007.

Các bộ váy của Nữ hoàng Elizabeth II được trưng bày trong cung điện.

Khách khứa trong phòng khiêu vũ của cung điện tại bữa tiệc sinh nhật lần thứ 50 của Thái tử Charles.

Một chuyên gia lau chùi chiếc đèn chùm thủy tinh có từ thế kỷ 19 trong phòng khiêu vũ của cung điện.

Chiếc bàn cổ kính được chạm hoa văn tinh xảo.

Khách khứa tham dự bữ tiệc mừng sinh nhật lần thứ 80 của Nữ hoàng Elizabeth II tại phòng khiêu vũ của cung điện, hôm 19/4/2006.

Chiếc cầu thang cổ điển.

Phòng ngai vàng.

Một bức tranh cổ.

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Những tấm hình mặc bikini nằm trong triển lãm “Vẻ đẹp trước biển” của Mai Phương Thúy được giới thiệu tại Festival Nha Trang vào 6/6. “Vẻ đẹp trước biển” gồm năm bộ ảnh mang tên Yoga biển đêm, Tinh khôi trước biển, Báu vật biển xanh, Gọi tên bốn mùa và Dệt ước mơ, không chỉ giới thiệu vẻ đẹp của người phụ nữ hiện đại, quyến rũ và năng động mà còn thông qua đó thu hút những tấm lòng nhân đạo.

Hiện tại, người đẹp 20 tuổi đã thu được 300 triệu đồng từ việc bán 5 trong số 100 tác phẩm trưng bày tại triển lãm cho Euro Window. Mai Phương Thúy hy vọng sẽ gặp được nhiều Mạnh Thường Quân hơn để có thể thu được số tiền lớn, giúp đỡ những người khó khăn tại Khánh Hòa.

Trong thời gian diễn ra triển lãm, Mai Phương Thúy sẽ vắng mặt một số ngày để tới Mỹ làm giám khảo cuộc thi Hoa hậu Việt Nam Toàn cầu. Hoa hậu Việt Nam 2006 tâm sự, cô không cảm thấy lo lắng hay hồi hộp vì trước đó từng cầm cân nảy mực trong gần 50 cuộc thi sắc đẹp trong và ngoài nước như Hoa hậu Thế giới người Việt 2007 tại Anh và Đức, Miss Vietnam 2009 tại Pháp…

Trên cương vị giám khảo, người đẹp Hà Nội cho biết cô sẽ thật công tâm, không thiên vị một ai, dù trong số các thí sinh của Miss Vietnam Global 2009 có người đẹp Hương Giang là bạn quen biết từ trước.

“Hoa hậu Việt Nam Toàn cầu chắc chắn phải hội tụ một cách toàn vẹn chất Việt thướt tha ở màn trình diễn áo dài dân tộc; sự duyên dáng, ý nhị, thông minh và thực tế trong cách trả lời ứng xử; khỏe mạnh, gợi cảm với áo tắm; sang trọng, kiêu sa nhưng không quá tay với trang phục dạ hội. Tôi mong rằng mình sẽ có cơ hội tìm hiểu một cách cặn kẽ nhất để đưa ra đánh giá khách quan nhằm chọn ra người con gái đẹp đại diện cho đất nước, mà không phải nấp sau hình ảnh một cô Tây nào cả”, Mai Phương Thúy chia sẻ về tiêu chí chấm điểm của mình.

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