The US Dollar finished the week lower against almost all G10 counterparts, continuing its multi-month downtrend ahead of a critical week of economic event risk. A fairly disappointing revision to Q4 GDP capped a week of mixed data, and all eyes now turn to the coming week’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The NFPs release needs little introduction as one of the most market-moving reports across global financial markets, and February’s result will be particularly significant given January’s sharply below-forecast jobs figure.

A busy week of economic event risk will shape expectations and likely force sharp short-term moves ahead of the NFP release, and it will be critical to monitor financial market moves as the US Dollar nears significant lows against major counterparts. Consensus forecasts currently call for a respectable 190k jobs gain through the month of February—consistent with expectations of substantial improvements on January’s clear disappointment. We will watch earlier-week ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, and ISM Services results to gauge the likelihood that February payrolls meet lofty forecasts. Uncertainty surrounding the future of US Federal Reserve monetary policy puts all eyes on whether a broader economic recovery will be enough to produce similar improvements in the domestic labor market.

The US Federal Reserve shows little urgency in withdrawing extraordinary monetary policy stimulus amidst generally weak inflation and lackluster jobs growth. Controversial Quantitative Easing measures have been a major driving force behind US Dollar weakness, and it could arguably take a substantial shift in the Fed’s stance and rhetoric to force a sustained Greenback recovery. In the absence of such a change, the US Dollar may need a broader shift in financial markets to drive a major reversal.

The S&P 500 saw a sharp pullback on a broader flight to safety on geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and the USD rallied as one of the world’s foremost safe-haven currencies. Yet a later bounce in stock markets suggests bulls have yet to give up the fight, and we may need to see a more sustained shift to make any serious argument for a market top (and US Dollar bottom). CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that Non-Commercial traders (typically large speculators) remain heavily net-short the US currency on a steady downtrend. And though such one-sided sentiment typically occurs near major market turns, sentiment extremes are only clear in hindsight and extremely difficult to time.

Trend traders will likely favor continued US Dollar weakness into the week ahead, and it is difficult to make the case for a substantive turnaround absent a material improvement in USD sentiment. FX Options market risk reversals likewise suggest that many traders have continued to bet on and hedge against Greenback weakness. It would likely take a material improvement in US economic data or a similarly large turn lower in ‘risk’ to force a substantive USD bounce. Given that the first week of the month quite often sets the pace for subsequent trading, we will pay special attention to whether the US currency shows any real signs of recovery through March.

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A stone yoni, considered to be the largest in Vietnam, at the exhibition The National Museum of Vietnamese History–Ho Chi Minh City launched an exhibition Sunday of some 300 of nearly 30,000 items collected since its establishment.

Running until the end of this year, the exhibition highlights various articles ranging from Vietnam’s largest stone yoni dating from the 12-13th century, to two Bertin vases made in the mid 19th century by France’s National Manufacture of Sèvres. Antiques belonging to Vietnamese royal families and Chinese pottery dating from the 18th century are also on display. Director Tran Thi Thuy Phuong said the items were gathered from different sources including collectors and police and customs officers who confiscated them in smuggling operations. Local and foreign benefactors, including famous antique collector Vuong Hong Sen, have also contributed to the collection, Phuong added. Titled Typical Antiques: 30 Years’ Collection, the exhibition marks the center’s celebration of its 30th anniversary. The museum is located at No.2 Nguyen Binh Khiem Street, District 1. Reported by Giao Huong

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Investors place orders at Viet Dragon Securities Corp. in Ho Chi Minh City. Foreign investment in Vietnamese stocks stands at US$5 billion, including shares in commercial banks, insurance firms and major companies, an industry report said Friday, up from $4.6 billion at the end of last year.

Earlier industry reports had shown a steep drop in portfolio investment from $7.6 billion in December 2007. The current investments included $1 billion by foreign strategic investors in financials and $4 billion from funds and institutions not based in the country, the Vietnam Association of Financial Investors’ report said. Vietnam caps foreign ownership in listed domestic banks at 30 percent, with a 15 percent limit for strategic investors that can be increased to 20 percent with government approval. Foreign investors now have shares in a number of Vietnamese banks, such as Saigon Thuong Tin Bank, Asia Commercial Bank and Vietcombank, the country’s largest partly private lender. The VN Index on the main Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange has risen 70 percent this year. It added 1.8 percent on Friday. Source: Reuters

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Vietnam’s leading retailer Saigon Co.op Thursday signed a deal with Tin Nghia Real Estate Company to take over its existing market in Bien Hoa Town and upgrade it into a supermarket.

The 3,000-square meter Co.opMart Tan Bien would be the retailer’s second outlet in Tan Bien Ward, an affluent business center in the city. Saigon Co.op said it is set to invest more than VND20 billion (US$1.1 million) to renovate Tan Bien market. Work would start next month, the retailer said, adding the supermarket would begin full operation in the third quarter. In July 2007, Saigon Co.op opened its first outlet in Dong Nai Province. Saigon Co.op’s revenues last year topped VND6.35 trillion ($372 million), a 48.9 percent year-on-year increase and it expects this to rise to VND9 trillion this year. It plans to have around 100 outlets by 2020. Reported by Vinh Bao

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These apartments in Hanoi are meant for residents displaced due to projects to construct industrial parks and urban areas. Displaced farmers, food security and the loss of an average of 74,000 hectares of farmland yearly to urban and industrial zones were a few issues heard at a seminar in Hanoi Friday.

The Land Science Association held the event to discuss regulations on land relating to agriculture, farmers and rural areas. Experts blamed industrial parks for devastating surrounding farmland with pollution, while people in rural areas have lost jobs from the farmland shrinkage. Around 500,000 hectares of farmland have been taken for other purposes between 2000 and 2007, said Ton Gia Huyen from the association. This area is equal to 5 percent of the country’s farmland, he added. Many serious problems have cropped up from the revocation of farmland for non-agricultural purposes, he said. A survey at 16 cities and provinces found 89 percent of land being revoked to build residences, industrial parks and infrastructure were farmland, mostly rich rice paddies. “Many industrial parks in several localities have been constructed on farmland although they could have zoned them on mountainous areas or those with poorer soil, because of their advantageous infrastructure,” said Hoang Thi Van Anh from the Land Bureau under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. She named several such industrial parks, including Ba Thien, Quang Minh II and Binh Xuyen in Vinh Phuc Province; VSIP, Que Vo and Nam Son – Hap Linh in Bac Ninh Province; Long Giang in Tien Giang Province and Van Trung in Bac Giang Province. Of these provinces, Vinh Phuc set up three industrial parks in 2007 which cover a total of 865 hectares of good farmland, while three industrial parks at Bac Ninh eliminated 1,940 hectares of farmland in 2007 and 2008. Vu Thi Binh from the Hanoi Agricultural University said Hai Duong Province, which saw its paddy fields decrease 4.8 percent in 2008 from 2005, has suffered a fall of 3.3 percent in its rice output. If land for paddy cultivation continues to plummet, Hai Duong could have a rice shortage, she said. Tran Ngoc Hung, chairman of Vietnam General Construction Association warned the shrinkage of farmland could threaten food security. “Vietnam is one of the countries worst affected from the sea level rising,” he said, adding that the salty water is threatening to spill over and damage millions of hectares of farmland nationwide in the future. “I wonder what our descendents would think about our decision to eliminate millions of hectares of farmland which had been created by our ancestors,” Hung said. Vietnam’s population is estimated at about 86 million and is expected to increase by 1-1.2 percent in the next few decades. Researchers estimated rice demand would jump to 53.2 million tons in 2020 from 47 million tons in 2010. The farmland revocation from 2003 to 2008 has affected 950,000 farmers in more than 627,000 families, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported. Between 25-30 percent of these farmers became unemployed or found unstable jobs, leading to a 53 percent decrease in income for these families, the ministry said. Resettlement problem Housing for displaced farmers has been a monumental headache for the families, advocates said. Hung of the construction association said he was “allergic” to the term “resettlement” because the poor quality apartments and houses are not suitable for the displaced residents. He said between 60 and 70 percent of displaced residents in major cities have sold their new accommodations because it was worse than their previous houses or not suitable for living. Hung suggested providing sufficient compensation, equal to market prices, for residents to find their own accommodations instead of compensating less and offering cheap resettlement residences. Anh from the Land Bureau also criticized the farmland compensation rate. “Compensation for farmland is often not enough to buy the same area of farmland in other places, or to help the farmers find other employment,” she said. Phan Van Tho from the Land Bureau said some localities, due to their limited budget, have offered compensation equaling only 30-50 percent of market prices. In many localities, project investors negotiate directly with farmers about the amount of compensation for land revocation. But they have failed to do so in a structured and unified manner, creating compensation differences in a locality, which has also caused complaints, he said. In addition, the resettlement process has not been planned well enough so that those affected could be assured of being provided with equal or better housing than before, said Huyen from the Land Science Association. Tho also said the shortage of funds for housing, land and capital in resettlement is now all too common and serious. Hanoi’s housing and land fund meets only 40 percent of its demand for resettlement, and Ho Chi Minh City’s is 70 percent, he said. Reported by Bao Van – Quang Duan

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A man who spent weeks plotting a gold robbery, including buying a police uniform, weapons and fake identification, was critically injured when the heist went horribly wrong, Ho Chi Minh City police said on Sunday.

Police said 46-year-old Huynh Huu Nhan, from the Mekong Delta province of An Giang, had confessed to planning the bungled robbery of a District 7 jewelry store since February.

On Saturday morning, Nhan placed a telephone order for 400 taels of gold – nearly 15 kilograms - from Tan Kim Hieu jewelry shop.

With the price of gold at the Saigon Jewelry Joint Stock Company on Monday at VND19.65 million (US$1,124) per ounce, Nhan’s order was worth around $540,000.

Nhan had been going to the shop to buy small quantities of gold over the previous weeks. But on Saturday he asked the jewelry store owner to bring the gold to his house because he was afraid of being robbed.

Six jewelry store employees were dispatched to accompany the gold to Nhan’s rented house. Two stood guard outside as the others went inside.

But police said when the employees entered the building, Nhan shot Nguyen Quoc Cuong in the stomach.

Nhan’s gun then jammed and the three unharmed jewelry shop employees tried to seize the gun from him.

Ten shots were fired in the tussle. One employee was injured and Nhan was eventually stabbed with a bayonet.

Nhan and Cuong were taken to hospital in a critical condition but police said Nhan had recovered enough to provide a statement.

Cuong remains in a critical condition, police said.

Nhan told police he bought a $50 grenade, a $200 K54 hand gun, a $400 AK machine gun and a $100 police uniform at a Vietnam-Cambodia border market.

He rented an apartment about a kilometer away from the jewelry shop and hired a car as a getaway vehicle.

Police said they will charge Nhan with attempted murder, robbery and illegal possession and use of military weapons.

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The world's fish stocks will soon suffer major upheaval due to climate change, scientists have warned.

Changing ocean temperatures and currents will force thousands of species to migrate polewards, including cod, herring, plaice and prawns.

By 2050, US fishermen may see a 50% reduction in Atlantic cod populations.

The predictions of "huge changes", published in the journal Fish and Fisheries, were presented at the AAAS annual meeting in Chicago.

Marine biologists used computer models to forecast the future of 1,066 commercially important species from across the globe.

"The impact of climate change on marine biodiversity and fisheries is going to be huge," said lead author Dr William Cheung, of the University of East Anglia in the UK.

"We must act now to adapt our fisheries management and conservation policies to minimise harm to marine life and to our society.

"We can use our knowledge to improve the design of marine protected areas which are adaptable to changes in distribution of the species," he told the conference.

Sinking feeling

The world's oceans are already experiencing changes in temperature and current patterns are changing due to climate change.

Existing patterns of catches will change

To quantify the likely impact on sea life, Dr Cheung and his team developed a new computer model that predicts what might happen under different climate scenarios.

While scientists have made projections of climate change impact on land species, this is the most comprehensive study on marine species ever published.

"We found that on average, the animals may shift their distribution towards the poles by 40km per decade," said Dr Cheung.

"Atlantic cod on the east coast of the US may see a 50% reduction in some populations by 2050."

The invasion of new species into unfamiliar environments could seriously disrupt ecosystems, the researchers warn.

Some species will face a high risk of extinction, including Striped Rock Cod in the Antarctic and St Paul Rock Lobster in the Southern Ocean.

Sea-saw

But of course, as fish migrate polewards, fishermen in some areas will see their stocks increase.

The model predicts an increased catch in the North Sea - benefiting fishermen from Nordic countries.

But fishermen in tropical developing countries will suffer major losses in catch.

The socio-economic impact could be devastating, according to another study published recently in the same journal.

Thirty-three nations in Africa, Asia and South America are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate change in fisheries, according to scientists from the World Fish Centre.

Of these, 19 were already classified by the United Nations as "least developed" because of their particularly poor socioenomic conditions.

"Economically, people in the tropics and subtropics likely will suffer most, because fish are so important in their diets and because they have limited capacity to develop other sources of income and food," said Edward Allison, director of policy, economics and social science at WorldFish.

"We believe it is urgent to start identifying these vulnerable countries, because the damage will be greatly compounded unless national governments and international institutions like the World Bank act now to include the fish sector in plans for helping the poor cope with climate change."

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Stocks rebounded Wednesday on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange as the recovery on international stock markets boosted investor confidence.

The VN-Index, Vietnam’s main stock index, moved up sharply soon after the opening bell on heavy buying. But the uptick ran out of steam in the second session which saw heavy trading with 18.7 million shares changing hands. The benchmark index eventually closed 8.82 points, or 2.73 percent, up at 331.62. Trading volume was high, with 23.3 million shares traded, compared with Monday’s 14.7 million and Tuesday’s 18.2 million. Of the index’s members, 132 advanced and 21 declined. Nguyen Hai Son, a broker at FPT Securities Co. in HCMC said sentiment was the key driver. “Investors were buoyant after gains on stock markets around the world,” he said. But it is hard to make a prediction now since the market moves rely mainly on investor confidence, which is driven by the international markets, he said. Asian stocks soared for a second straight day Wednesday after a strong rally on Wall Street as hopes mounted for further interest rate cuts to shore up the global economy. Japan's Nikkei stock index jumped more than 7 percent in early trade, regaining the key 8,000-points level, after the Dow Jones had soared almost 11 percent in New York overnight. Shares jumped almost 8 percent in Seoul and 4.5 percent in Sydney. Singapore saw a gain of 3.8 percent. In Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange rebounded 7.2 percent, nearly erasing Tuesday's 8.14 percent plunge, the worst single-session drop in 21 years. In the wake of huge gains in Asia, European exchanges rebounded. London's FTSE 100 index rose 1.92 percent and the Paris CAC 40 gained 1.55 percent. The Frankfurt DAX, again powered by big gains for Volkswagen, soared 11.28 percent to 4,823.45. In Latin America's biggest stock market, Brazil's Ivobespa index soared 13.42 percent, while Argentina's Merval jumped 6.58 percent. Stocks’ performances Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank, the exchange’s only listed traded lender, remained the most active stock by volume, with 2.4 million shares changing hands. The HCMC-based lender edged up VND900, or 4.74 percent, to close at VND19,900. Vitaly Joint Stock Co., Hanoi P&T Construction & Installation Joint stock Co., Petrolimex Joint Stock Tanker Co. and furniture maker Savimex Corp. were the top four movers Wednesday, all rising by the daily maximum limit. Lam Dong Mineral and Building Material Joint Stock Co. and Lu Gia Mechanical Electric Joint Stock Co. were the two biggest losers, both plummeting 4.98 percent. Foreigners have been net sellers since early this month, notching up net sales of VND71.5 billion (US$4.3 million). Reported by Hoang Uy (With input from AFP)

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