It's that time of the month again! Yes, you know what I'm talking about... The non-farm payrolls report is due today! My my, it's bound to be a pretty crazy Friday, I can tell...
The USD saw some mixed trading yesterday, as most majors went for the rally-then-reverse routine. Initial jobless claims for the week recorded 570K in unemployment claims, worse than the forecast at 563K but modestly better than last week's 574K reading. Meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded an improvement from 46.4 to 48.4.
For today's NFP report, a total of 223K in job losses are expected for the month of August. This would be an improvement over July's 247K increase in unemployment... if the actual figure meets or beats the consensus. Just a few days ago, the ADP non-farm employment change report, which is considered a sneak preview of the NFP report, printed 298K in job losses. Although it was significantly better than July's 360K in job losses, it was worse than the consensus of a 250K increase in unemployment. Whatever the actual NFP figure prints, the market is in for some volatility around the time of release at 12:30 pm GMT.
Also due today is the US unemployment rate and average hourly earnings report. The unemployment rate is expected to climb from 9.4% to 9.5% for August. This indicator just came from a surprise drop from 9.5% to 9.4% in July, causing some to think that the labor market woes are over. However, underlying figures show that the dip was a fluke since it was caused by discouraged workers dropping out of the workforce and not improved hiring. We'll see if the same phenomenon took place in August...
It looks like the USD plans to end the week with a big bang! Watch out for fireworks and stay on your toes. Good luck trading!
The USD saw some mixed trading yesterday, as most majors went for the rally-then-reverse routine. Initial jobless claims for the week recorded 570K in unemployment claims, worse than the forecast at 563K but modestly better than last week's 574K reading. Meanwhile, ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded an improvement from 46.4 to 48.4.
For today's NFP report, a total of 223K in job losses are expected for the month of August. This would be an improvement over July's 247K increase in unemployment... if the actual figure meets or beats the consensus. Just a few days ago, the ADP non-farm employment change report, which is considered a sneak preview of the NFP report, printed 298K in job losses. Although it was significantly better than July's 360K in job losses, it was worse than the consensus of a 250K increase in unemployment. Whatever the actual NFP figure prints, the market is in for some volatility around the time of release at 12:30 pm GMT.
Also due today is the US unemployment rate and average hourly earnings report. The unemployment rate is expected to climb from 9.4% to 9.5% for August. This indicator just came from a surprise drop from 9.5% to 9.4% in July, causing some to think that the labor market woes are over. However, underlying figures show that the dip was a fluke since it was caused by discouraged workers dropping out of the workforce and not improved hiring. We'll see if the same phenomenon took place in August...
It looks like the USD plans to end the week with a big bang! Watch out for fireworks and stay on your toes. Good luck trading!
0 comments:
Post a Comment