Daily Economic Commentary: United States September 7, 2009

What a bad way to end the week for the USD last Friday. The other majors advanced against the greenback after the NFP report showed that payrolls for the month of August declined at a slower pace than initially predicted. Will the USD continue to slide further?

Payrolls dropped only by 216,000 in August against expectations for a 223,000 lay-offs. The figure may still look huge but it is already a big improvement from the previous month’s 276,000 job losses. Despite the better-than-expected employment change, US’s unemployment rate still surged to 9.7% from 9.4%. While the labor market remains to be weak, the economic growth forecast for this quarter would set the bar for improved worker productivity and, thus, corporate profits.

The market discounted the still weak labor conditions. Risk appetite in the capitals markets surfaced once again. The USD sold off as a result.

Not much will happen today in the US due to a bank holiday.

The US’s unemployment claims for the week ending September 5 and its July trade balance will be released on September 10. The unemployment claims is seen to taper off a little bit to 555,000 from 570,000 while its trade balance is expected to improve marginally to -$26.8 billion from -$27.0 billion.

US’s federal balance and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment are due on September 11. Both accounts are seen to post improvements.

The expected gains in the upcoming economic reports may be bullish for the capitals markets but bearish for the USD.

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